Caveat survey

Noynoy, Villar tie for lead

SWS and Pulse Asia are probably grinning from ear to ear on their way to the bank with election surveys being a very hot commodity these days. Whether commissioned or on their own initiative, they get the publicity they want and this converts to zings in the cash register for them.

These surveys are crucial because they can influence the public in their choice of political candidates. Their impact is magnified by the media when they put them in the front pages and interpreted them as credible indicators of winnability. As a result, candidates try their “stupid” best (e.g., Mar on padyak, Villar dancing, Noynoy rapping, Erap daydreaming) to polish their public image in order to improve their survey ratings. A more alarming consequence is that people are swayed to change their preference just because their candidate does not figure well in surveys.

There is really nothing wrong with surveys. Organizations usually conduct surveys to evaluate something or to know how something is perceived. The integrity of surveys is anchored in their being research-based and scientifically or mathematically calculated. Of great concern though is the likely arbitrariness or errors in the collection of raw data that may betray the results. Regardless, surveys are harmless in so far as these are used for private purposes.

If the subject of a survey is of public interest, however, it becomes a sensitive matter especially when it is fed to the media. In this case, stricter reporting guidelines should be observed. For instance, there should be a certain caveat that the survey is not reflective of the real state of things. How the results were arrived at should also be explained well. Another is that survey results should not be published at a time when people are about to make major decisions such as near or on the day of the elections.

These suggestions would help the public make an intelligent choice in voting for a candidate. It should not matter whether a candidate lags in the poll or not. In making very important decisions, we should not be influenced by mere perception – which is what surveys merely offer.

Be warned.